Again we are faced with the media presenting erroneous information to consumers based on data that is inaccurate and far too broad-based to carry water. As one of my colleagues so eloquently put it earlier today in remarking about various newspaper and magazine accounts of the current real estate market, “Real Estate is NOT real, it’s the perception that is real”!
As stated in CNNMoney this week, according to FISV, a financial analytics company, home values are expected to fall another 3.6% nationwide by next June. Naples Florida was used as an example as a region that will be hardest hit, with an anticipated drop of another 18.9%” In addition FISV states that Naples has already dropped 61%. What they, and others, fail to take into consideration is the vastness of Collier County and the gaping range in housing values from one zip code to the next. The areas around Naples which have experienced the greatest setbacks are now some of the most resilient. As an example, Golden Gate Estates, a rural community of Collier County with a Naples mailing address, has seen values decrease as much as 75%! As short a time as only 3 years ago that community had approximately a 7.2 year’s supply of inventory! Presently there is less than a 6 month supply, and enough demand to absorb any shadow inventory that might come up on the market in the foreseeable future. Across the board we are seeing signs of stabilization. The trend lines in almost every Naples neighborhood are up!
The Naples Luxury Real Estate market has shown strong signs of recovery. Cindy Carroll with Carroll & Carroll, Inc. a Florida State Residential Real Estate Appraiser, was guest speaker at The Coldwell Banker business meeting last week. According to her market statistics: Old Naples single family homes currently have a balanced supply with 64 Active listings, 7 pending and 62 sold in the past 12 months. The Moorings/Park Shore/Coquina Sands single family homes currently has a shortage of inventory: 104 Actives, 16 pending and 115 closed in the past 12 months. Port Royal and Aqualane Shores both have approximately a 1 1/2 year supply of inventory. Royal Harbor, which had a 9.6 year’s supply in April of 2007 now has about a 1.5 year supply…talk about a ‘come back’!
Despite the challenges that we, and everyone else in the real estate industry are facing today, Harris Peppe Wells remains bullish on the housing outlook in Naples. Just a few factors that we believe back up that opinion are: 1.) It just snowed as far south as Virginia last week and 1.6 million people are still without power….people want to spend winters in paradise! 2.) 78 million baby boomers will begin retiring within the next 10 years and many of them will be looking for housing, either to buy or rent, in warmer climates, and #3.) Our interest rates remain at record lows, making housing more affordable than ever for the 35% of the buyers in Naples that finance!
The media may try to do their best to scare away the investors, snowbirds and our international friends, but these factors will come into play more times than not. We all just need to continue to get the word out there that Naples is a safe and beautiful place to live, with well priced listings and a limited inventory.
If you would like information about a particular neighborhood or zip code in Naples, please do not hesitate to call The Harris Peppe Team. 239.370.0574
We welcome your comments. Please make it a great day!
Thank you,
The Naples Real Estate Blogger
