Why local real estate values are not just “local” to Naples in general, but also why each community and price point has its own trends based on supply and demand:
I’ve been showing property to a very nice couple who are looking to be in a golf course community in the Naples area in a single family home priced somewhere between $1 million to $1.5 million dollars. Of course, there are other particulars such as the number of bedrooms, view and exposure; and mandatory features such as all living areas being on one level and that there be a private pool. Keeping all things relative, I have found about 80 homes that meet their general criteria, but then narrowed down the search when considering the homeowner’s handicap and course preference, club fees, and other amenities as well as the location of the country club and proximity to I-75, the beaches and downtown Naples. I will be able to show a total of 10-12 homes to this particular buyer. Now, the one thing that I find interesting in this exercise is this: Even though across the board it would appear that inventory is greatly diminished, there are still neighborhoods that have over a one year supply in this price range! As an example: The Vineyards Country Club currently has 12 active listings that match this criteria, however they have only had 7 closings in the past 12 month in this category. A seller in this community might read the reports in the paper or online and think they can stay firmer to their asking price as the market leans more in their favor, when in actuality there is over a one year supply on the market which still favors the buyer. When considering the broad brush of Naples in general, with approximately 80 active listings and 67 closings year-to-date that match these search parameters, that equates to just over a 1 year absorption rate. This commentary is true in many communities, however, many communities have a shortage of inventory, while others are still struggling with an over supply.
Here is a list of the “Years of Supply” currently available in some of the golf course communities in the Naples area which only includes single family homes in these neighborhoods:
Quail Creek currently has a 1.38 “years of supply”.
Grey Oaks has a 1.5 “years of supply”, but had over a 4 year supply just 8 months ago. Wow!
Quail West [Collier County only] has a 1.5 “years of supply”, which is much improved from their market high in December of 2008 when they had over a 7 year supply!
Pelican Landing has a 7.7 month supply! They have actually had a balanced supply since July of 2010!
Bonita Bay currently has a 1.15 “years of supply”, whereas both Copperleaf and Shadowood have less than a one year supply.
The Vineyards presently has a 1.1 “years of supply”.
Pelican Bay has an 8 month supply!
Collier’s Reserve has a 1.2 “years of supply”.
Imperial Golf Estates has a 5.4 month supply.
The Strand has a 10.5 months supply.
Wyndemere Country Club presently has 36 homes for sale and 12 closed sales in the past 12 months which equates to a 3 year supply.
Here’s one that is unbelievable: Eagle Creek has had 2 single family homes close in the past 12 months, yet there are 24 homes currently on the market in MLS. It will be a long time before that comes back to a balanced supply.
Windstar currently has a 6 month supply of homes in their inventory!
If you can think of any other neighborhoods that you’d like me to cover, please let me know. You can reach me by sending me a quick email to: TheBlogger@NaplesRealestate.com
Thank you again for your time! I hope you are having a wonderful day!
The Naples Real Estate Blogger
*The data in this post is derived from SunshineMLS and a report called: A Reflection of Supply and Demand by Cindy Carroll of Carrol & Carroll State certified Residential Real estate Appraiser RD615
